An opinion poll released on Sunday, June 19, showed that UDA flagbearer Deputy President William Ruto would beat his Azimio counterpart Raila Odinga in the first round if the General Election was held today.
The poll conducted by Intel Research Solutions (IRS) sampled 17,127 respondents and predicted that Ruto would garner 51.2 per cent of the total votes cast against Raila’s 42.5 per cent.
Ruto would have met the constitutional threshold of 50 per cent plus one vote required for any candidate to be declared president-elect of an election.
Deputy President William Ruto and running mate Rigathi Gachagua during a rally in Uthiru on Sunday, June 5, 2022.
William Ruto Roots party’s George Wajackoyah would bag 1.9 per cent while Agano Party’s David Mwaure would come in last with 0.7 per cent of the vote.
Ruto was poised to beat Odinga in Mount Kenya and the Central Rift, and with a large margin while the gap in the Maa side of the Rift Valley was revealed to be minimal at 0.7 per cent.
The former Prime Minister would gain the most votes in Nairobi, 48.3 per cent, beating Ruto by three percentage points. The Coast, Northern, and South-Eastern Regions would back the Azimio candidate.
On matters of running mate, women preferred Ruto and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua (52.5 per cent) to the Raila and Martha Karua tag-team (39.9 per cent). More men also preferred the Ruto-Rigathi ticket, however, by a less fraction compared to the women.
The analysis revealed that the majority of the youth would vote for the Kenya Kwanza leader – 57.1 per cent of those aged between 18-25 years and 54.9 per cent of those aged between 26-35 years.
Adults above 55 years would favour a Raila presidency at 49.2 per cent. On income distribution, the majority of the low-earning Kenyans would back the UDA candidate.
Raila was preferred by those earning between Ksh20,000 and Ksh50,000. The DP would gain more votes from those earning Ksh50,001 and above.
The Infotrak opinion poll released showed that Deputy President William Ruto’s popularity stood at 38 per cent.
The findings of the poll come barely a month after a poll released by Infotrak on June 8, which showed that Deputy President William Ruto’s popularity stood at 38 per cent – a dip of 4 percentage points while Raila’s popularity had stagnated.
Infotrak Chief Executive Officer Angela Ambitho stated that the drop was partly attributed to the selection of running mates by the two presidential candidates.
Raila Odinga addressing a rally in Kitui South on Wednesday, June 15, 2022